Throw It Like a Ballplayer

providing baseball commentary and ponderings since April 2010

Wastin’ away a one-run lead again…

Posted by dannmckeegan on July 30, 2010

…searching for my absent run support
some people claim that it’s Piniella to blame
but I know it’s nobody’s fault

May 10th: Florida Marlins 4, Chicago Cubs 2 Ted Lilly: 7 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 0 BB, 1 K
Plate Appearance 1 1st and 3rd 2 out groundout
Plate Appearance 2 bases loaded 2 out FC 2-unassisted
Plate Appearance 3 1st and 2nd 2 out strikeout swinging

I don’t know the reason

30 runs all season

nothing to show but a nice ERA

but it’s a real beauty


how I’m 3-and-9, I haven’t a clue

May 16th: Chicago Cubs 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 3 Ted Lilly: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R (3 ER), 3 BB, 4 K No Decision
Plate Appearance 1: 2nd and 3rd 2 out flyout
Plate Appearance 2: Bases Empty 1 out Strikeout Swinging

Wastin’ away a one-run lead again

searching for my missing run support

some people claim that it’s Aramis to blame

now I think

hell, it could be my fault

Ted Lilly’s Offensive Offense
27 men on base in 2010 36 plate appearances
16 PA with men on base 4 productive PA [2 SH, 2 BB]
22 men on with 2 out 17 PA with 2 out
2 PA with 2 out in which inning did not end
2 successful Sac Bunts 2 K on Sac Bunt attempts

I struck out while bunting

for a hit I was hunting

’til late July when I finally got on

but there’s beer in the bleachers

and soon I won’t be here

with the trade deadline I’m bound to move on

36 PA 31 AB 1 H 2 BB 1 HBP 17 K .032/.118/.032
WPA as SP: 0.603 WPA as hitter -0.695

Wastin’ away a one-run lead again

searching for my lack of run support

some people claim that it’s the bullpen to blame

but I know it’s my own damn fault


WPA is win probability added, a stat that calculates the probability change of winning, given average teams, caused by the addition of a given player.  Lilly’s pitching has increased the Cubs’ probability of winning each of his starts by 3.35% over the “average” starting pitcher.  Meanwhile, his weakness as a hitter has reduced the Cubs’ chances of winning each of his non-AL park starts by 4.34%.  Overall, Ted Lilly’s starts have seen a -1% change in win probability because of the balance of his offense versus his pitching ability.

So Ted Lilly’s offense is actually terrible enough to negate the value of his pitching.  Now, if he were to be removed from Wrigley (where he’s allowed 14 of his 19 HR in 67.1 of his 117 innings pitched) or the National League entirely (such that he would not have to hit until, theoretically, the World Series), his value would increase significantly.  The Mets, Dodgers, and a number of potential AL suitors would be good spots.


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